It's long so read if you dare.
I've always believed that unless the coach is a complete disaster (Cam Cameron in Miami for example), a coach needs 4-5 seasons to get his team, players and system fully implemented. Gary Kubiak is in the midst of his fifth season and it doesn't look very good.
If you look up the Texans record under Kubiak, you'd see the very model on consistency....consistently mediocre. Through four full seasons, Kubiak's record has been 6-10, 8-8, 8-8, 9-7. That's incremental improvement at best.
Kubiak and GM Rick Smith were definitely a step up over the Dom Capers/Charlie Casserly regime. Kubiak and Smith basically had to burn the franchise to the ground and rebuild.
Despite a complete roster turn over and high draft picks invested on defense, a serious regression in defense continues. Mario Williams, Omobi Okeye, Brian Cushing, Kareem Jackson...all first round draft picks in the Smithiak era. Mix those players in with Demeco Ryans, Troy Nolan, Brice McCain, Connor Barwin and Zac Diles and the core of the Texans defense is all Smithiak picks. Bernard Pollard, Antonio Smith and Shaun Cody were significant free agents. Frank Bush took over last year as defensive coordinator after Richard Smith was fired. All the picks and coaching changes are resulting in a defense on pace to be the worst defense in NFL
history. Not one of the worst but the worst in terms of yardage allowed..
For all the high draft picks, free agents and young players starting, there
is simply no excuse not to improve. Instead the team took a major step
back.
Adding fuel to the Fire Kubiak is his playcalling. Kubiak, like many coaches today, are married to their philosophy and won't change game plan or tactics to suit the situation or opponent. In the opener against the Colts, the Texans unleashed Arian Foster and dominated the Colts defense. Post game, the players said they had to beg Kubiak to keep running the ball. In the second game, Kubiak didn't try to dominate the Colts like in the first game. When asked why, Kubiak stated that he wanted to keep the offense balanced. The object of the game is to win. Screw the "balanced
attack" and look to exploit a flaw in the other team. The Texans have a front row seat on how to exploit. Rookie corner Kareem Jackson is tested and burned often in a game. Teams know the Texans can't stop the pass so they consistently throw. Kansas City, a power running team, didn't stick to running because it's team philosophy. Despite a bad season thus far for Matt Cassel, the Chiefs game planned to put the ball in the air to augment their rushing attack. It worked as Cassel had his best game of the season to that point.
The scripted playcalling is another boatload of nonsense. Kubiak scripts the first 15 or so plays of the game. Why? What's the point? Another example of Kubiak's controlling nature is the quarterback doesn't audible. Kubiak sends in the play and that's what is run. Matt Schaub has the freedom to call a check down play based on the defensive formation. Schaub doesn't have the freedom to change the play completely no matter the situation.
Substitution patterns also make no sense. When Foster appears to get into a groove, Kubiak strangely takes him out. Case in point, the Texans are driving late in the first half against the Chiefs. Foster is easily running through the defense. On a third and one with 30 seconds left, Kubiak yanks out Foster and subs in Derrick Ward. Ward is stopped at the line and the Texans settle for a field goal. Why take Foster out? Is the idea to rest him? I think he can play another 30 seconds before half without dropping dead.
One more item for concern is Kubiak's failure to make progress in the division or down the stretch. In November under Kubiak, the Texans are 5-13 overall and 2-12 on divisional road games. Again, Kubiak is consistent...a consistent failure in November.
So the question remains: is it time for a change? No doubt about it. The five season window is closing. This team and coaching staff haven't shown they can get the job done. Fortunately, unlike the Capers/Casserly Clowns, the team isn't lacking in talent. A new coach and/or GM won't have to gut the franchise and start over. The pieces are in place...Owner Bob McNair is going to have to make his coaching decision carefully though. The wrong coach can set the franchise back another five years and by then the fans will be ready to burn Reliant to the ground.
