2009 Houston Texans Schedule – My First Quick Take

2009 Houston Texans Schedule – My First Quick Take
Some things even out. Last season I had to burn 5 vacation days to see Texans home games. This year I only have to burn 3. Not bad at all. I do shift work. Some months my work days fall on Football Sundays.

At first glance it doesn’t look like the schedule makers did the Texans any favors.

Initially it looks fine that the Texans get 3 of 4 games at home to start the season. The only road game is at divisional foe Titans. They host three winnable games against the Jets, Jaguars and Raiders.

However, that home stretch comes with a cost. The next 4 out of 5 games are played on the road. Mixing the bye week, the Texans play one home game in six weeks. Two games loom large on the road. The first road game will be against defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals and closing out the road stretch with divisional arch nemesis Indianapolis Colts. The sole home game is against the 49ers.

If the Texans can defend the home field and win 2 of 4 on the long road stretch through the first nine games, they are looking at a 6-3 record. That puts them in prime contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title.

An upset or two greatly enhances playoff chances as long as they don’t drop a game they should win. If they can stun the Titans, Cardinal or Colts on the road it puts the Texans in the thick of the divisional race. Once again that assumes a strong start to the season. Worst case scenario while staying in contention is a split in the first four games and winning 3 of the next 5. That leaves them at 5-4. Any worse and they are on the outside looking in.

After the bye week, the Texans face their three divisional enemies in consecutive weeks. They host the Titans on Monday Night Football and the Colts the next week. They close out divisional play at Jacksonville. This is the next important stretch of games of the season. Regardless of a 6-3 record or 5-4 record, 2 of 3 wins is a must. One win leaves them with a 7-5 or 6-6 record. If they enter 6-3 and win 2 of 3, they are sitting in good spot at 8-4. In two scenarios, they could end up 7-5. While not the end of the world, the competition for a playoff spot becomes fierce.

Also two wins in the three game divisional stretch helps tremendously. Last year the Texans finished 8-8 with only two divisional wins; the MNF win over the Jags and the late season street fight with the Titans. It is vital to the playoff hopes that they win more than two divisional games.

The final four games are split with two at home and two on the road. They host Seattle, go on the road against the Rams and Dolphins and then return to host the Patriots. A split, in my two scenarios, leaves them at either 10-6 or 9-7. While both are winning records, it doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. The Patriots sat home last season with an 11-5 record.

The two keys to the season, in my way to early analysis, is to continue winning at home and improving the divisional record. Winning at home has actually been the easy part. Last season they lost two home games. Only the Ravens blew them out. They were one Sage Rosenfail turnover from going 7-1 at home. The true test of a contender is how they do on the road. For the Texans, improving the divisional record goes hand in hand with winning the road games.

Texans Times Illustrated - it's a working title for now

Texans Times Illustrated

April 2009

Inaugural Issue

What is the Texans Times Illustrated? My newsletter about my hometown NFL team – the Houston Texans.

This is my labor of love for the Texans. I’m not sure what direction it will go but I plan on doing it monthly during the off season and weekly during the season.

In this issue, I’ll take a look at the free agent moves and a draft preview.

So Long Sage Rosenfail, Hello Two Points Orlovsky

Sage Rosenfails was sent packing to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for a 2009 fourth round draft pick. Rosenfails stepped in and went 2-3 as a starter while Matt Schaub was injured. He is probably best known for his epic meltdown against the Indianapolis Colts.



I had this weird thing about taking a picture of the scoreboard after a game last season. For some odd reason I decided to do it at the 8 minute mark of the Colts game. Right before Rosenfails epic blunders. I was to stunned to snap one after the game.

That game forever cemented my low opinion of Rosenfails. I have no idea what Rosenfails was thinking during the game. I think he started seeing his headlines and the ensuing quarterback controversy. Instead of managing the game, his head swelled. Up to the collapse, he played a perfect game. His bootlegs were a thing of beauty. The mass of players went one direction while Rosenfails went the opposite direction and would hit an open receiver downfield. The game plan was perfect. Keep the offense on the field and Payton Manning on the sidelines.

Then in a matter of minutes the whole game collapsed. Rosenfails thought he was John Elway and turned into a helicopter. That one play changed the game and gave Manning the opening he needed to pull off the victory.

Up until the Colts game, Sage Rosenfels was the most popular player on the team. Hordes of fans were calling for Schaub to be benched and Rosenfels to start.

Two things turned the fans against Rosenfails: 1. the Colts meltdown and 2. the realization that he’s not better than Schaub.

The team decided to send Rosenfails to the Vikings for a draft pick. Good luck Minnesota, he’s your problem now.

The Perfect Season
Of course, Matt Schaub’s ability to play a full season is still a big question. In two seasons as the Texans starting QB he’s missed several games. It goes to reason that the Texans must find someone capable of starting in the likely event that Schaub will miss a few games.

So to fill Rosenfails shoes, the Texans went out and signed Don Orlovsky. Orlovsky was a part time starter for those perfect Detroit Lions. Unfortunately perfection for the Lions is a low bar. 0-16 is perfect. Perfectly bad.

Orlovsky isn’t a major upgrade from Rosenfails. He is a capable starter and definitely isn’t any worse than Rosenfails. Like the man he replaces, Orlovsky is better known for his epic blunder than his success. Orlovsky evidently forgot the dimensions of the football field. He notoriously stepped out of the endzone against the Vikings for a safety. The margin of victory was two points (a 12-10 loss) and cost the Lions a chance of at least one win season.

Orlovsky now dons the steel blue and battle red of the Texans. Here’s hoping the only use the Texans have for him is mop up time in a blowout. And hopefully that blowout is in the Texans favor.

The Other Free Agents
The Texans have never been big players on the free agency scene. They probably will never chase free agents of Albert Haynesworth’s magnitude or make a trade for Julius Peppers. The current regime prefers to build through the draft and use free agents for depth. Matt Schaub is probably the biggest trade in the history of the club. Earth shattering trade it isn’t. It is by the standards of this club.

The big name free agent, again at least by the standards of this team, the Texans signed is defensive end Antonio Smith. Smith comes to the Texans from the Phoenix Cardinals. Smith will step in and start at left defensive in and sometimes move to the tackle spot on third down passing situations. The signing helps fill one obvious need on the defensive line and also allows the team to address other areas of need through the draft.

The Texans hope Smith can help alleviate some of the double teams on Mario Williams. He is Super Mario but he can’t do it all by himself. The other factor is the learning curve for a defensive end. Rookie seasons are usually a wash as they learn the game. The light didn’t go off in Williams’ head until the middle of his second season. The Texans can’t afford to wait another two seasons for a defensive lineman to learn on the job.

The other signing was defensive tackle Shaun Cody, also of the Detroit Lions. Who? That’s right. Who. The Lions had exactly one good player on defense and his name isn’t Cody. As on of the posters at InTheBullseye.com stated, “we already have a Travis Johnson.” Cody brings nothing to the table. Cody started four games last season. How bad are you when you can’t crack the starting line up on the worst team in football? The terms of his contract haven’t been released except for the dollar amount and number of years. If I had to guess, I think it’s all nonguaranteed money in the form of roster bonuses for making the team. Other than that he’s training camp fodder.

Mock Draft Overload

Mock drafts are an exercise in futility. There are numerous websites, experts, draft gurus, bloggers and columnists that put together mock drafts. They publish before free agency, post free agency, pre-combine, post combine and anytime someone breaks wind. For the most part, they don’t know what they are talking about. Talk show listeners call shows to talk about their research and ask the hosts questions regarding their mock drafts.

Yet it’s all for nothing. How many get it right? How many actually know what they are talking or writing about? Most are talking heads full of hot air. If they were actually good at what they do then they would either charge for their services or be on staff somewhere. I can understand the entertainment value of trying to construct a mock draft or two. I can’t understand a fan or journalist sitting in front of the TV and practically masturbating to the combine. It’s a total waste of time to create a mock draft before free agency, the combine and school pro days.

I prefer to read scouting reports and other reports about players but I put no value in reading mock drafts. I restrict my reading to the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain and Lance Zeirlien, Texans Chick aka Stephanie Stradley, InTheBullseye.com, DGDB&D and my Pro Football Weekly subscriptions. Also I prefer to read player rankings by position versus where they will go in the draft.

Texans Draft Preview

Another reason I don’t read mock drafts is that they are a steaming pile. The most glaring need for the Texans is on defense. Head coach Gary Kubiak has stated that the Texans want their first pick to be a starter. Other than center, they are set on the offense. Yet there are several websites that have the Texans taking offense. I’ve seen mock drafts taking Mark Sanchez, Beanie Wells, Keyshawn Moreno and Jeremy Maclin.

Defense, Defense, Defense
The obvious need for the Texans is defense. The Antonio Smith signing negates the need to draft an end. I also don’t think they take a tackle with the first pick. They are expecting Amobi Okoye to step up in his third season. They probably aren’t ready to give up on the Travis Johnson Experiment.

That leaves the linebackers and defensive backfield. DeMeco Ryans holds down the middle. Zac Diles and Xavier Adibi played on the outside. Diles played well enough until his season ending injury. Kevin Bentley took Ziles’ place and was at best adequate. Adibi may be snake bitten with the injury bug. Depth at linebacker is a concern. The starting corners and rotation is set with Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson, Fred Bennett and probably Antwuan Molden. At safety, they want to see what they have in Dominique Barber. Nick Ferguson re-signed with the team to return as a starter. Depth at safety is a definite need.

The defense needs a playmaker and starter to come out of this draft. Two would be great. The first position I look the Texans to take is at outside linebacker. There are several linebackers in this draft class expected to make an impact right away. Some have suggested the Texans take a middle linebacker and move DeMeco Ryans back to his college position on the outside. The Texans probably won’t do that. They hit the jackpot with Ryans in the middle. No need to move him outside when there are players available in the draft to take the outside. The lack of quality first round safeties also will push the Texans to take an outside linebacker.

It’s in the second round is where they will either look for the safety or a pass rushing end. With the plan to move Antonio Smith to tackle on some passing situations, they could possibly take an end they think can be a third down end.

Offense?
Two areas need to be addressed on offense.

The first is a second running back to spell starter Steve Slaton and pick up short yardage. Some fans have suggested a power back. With the zone block scheme the Texans use, a power back probably isn’t in the cards. A quick cutting back is what they look for.

The second area is depth on the offensive line. All five linemen started the sixteen games. According to who you believe and read, rookie Duane Brown had either a decent year or a bad year. Most believe he was a reach in the first round. Regardless he’s the starting left tackle the team has sought since its inception. Center Chris Meyer is undersized. However I don’t think they will want to mess with a starting line up that played all season together.

Despite what some alleged gurus claim, the Texans won’t take an offensive player with the first pick. Of course, never say never. There are two players that I might consider taking.

The Texans brain trust would be insane not to consider taking Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree. I have two scenarios with Crabtree. As much as I like Kevin Walters as the second wideout, Crabtree would be a major upgrade and a nightmare to cover opposite of Andre Johnson. The other scenario is making a deal with a team than needs a wide receiver and swapping 1st round picks and picking up a second or third rounder.

The other player is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. There were some knocks on his times at the combine. Despite that he is the only first round talent at tight end. The Texans have an excellent TE in Owen Daniels but Pettigrew has a reputation as a great blocker. He is probably not a great fit for the Texans but I’d have to consider him before I move on to the next player on my board.

Connecticut running back Donald Brown intrigues me if he were still available when the Texans select in the second round. According to the Pro Football Weekly scouting report:

…best used on counters, misdirections and in space…Could really excel in zone blocking scheme.

He is projected as a borderline first rounder.

Exciting Time for the Texans and Their Fans

Obviously it’s an exciting time for all those involved with the Texans organization as coaches, players and fans. Expectations are higher than ever before. The team is gunning for its playoff appearance. There are still some many question marks on this team though. Can the defense improve? Will Matt Schaub stay healthy and reduce the turnovers? Can the Texans extend DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels and Dunta Robinson to keep them happy? Is new defensive coordinator Frank Bush an improvement over Richard Smith? None of these question can be answered until the team lines up and starts playing the games.

That’s it for this issue. Next month I’ll obviously review the draft. Also I’ll be posting updates to this newsletter on a website or blog.