Texans Illustrated - Draft Post Mortem

Texans Times Illustrated

Post Draft Edition
May 2009

Yawn!

That’s my shoot from the hip evaluation of the Houston Texans 2009 draft class. Other than outside linebacker (Brian Cushing) and offensive line depth (Antione Caldwell), the Texans didn’t address any of the other team needs. They took two cornerbacks, two tight ends, a back up safety and a raw project.

Here’s my evaluation, starting from the bottom up.

Troy Nolan SS Arizona St. 7th Round
They definitely needed a safety. Starting quality would have been preferable. Nolan needs some work and weight. Also is a bit flat footed for a safety. He clocked in at 4.64 40 and benched 225 lbs 12 times at the combine.

Nolan does have some play making ability. He returned four interceptions for TDs in two seasons. He’s also athletic. He played basketball, track and field and soccer in high school.

What the scouting report I have says is that sometimes it was more a case of him being in the right place at the right time. He’s heavy footed and his skills aren’t particularly suited for the pro game. He’s rated as a solid back up but nothing more. He grades out as a late round prospect or priority free agent.

My Grade picking Nolan: C+, solid back up.

Brice McCain CB ??? 6th Round
I have no idea. I can’t find a scouting report as of yet. I can’t find him on a depth chart. Nice pick Texans.
McCain update: Apparently he's really fast. In an Al Davis fit, Smithiak took McCain.

My grade on McCain: Incomplete

James Casey TE/HB Rice 5th Round
Casey is a good pick who might pay off. He’s athletic and versatile. He’s probably too small and definitely not strong enough to play tight end. On the other hand he probably makes a great NFL halfback.

The scouting report for him is full of praise. Whoever wrote it likes his athleticism, pass catching ability, a knack for finding an open field, work ethic, eye-hand coordination and upper body strength.

The only knocks are his arm length and lower body strength. The scout thinks the short arms limits his ability to stretch out for balls and his lower body isn’t strong enough to be an inline blocker. The only other knock is his age due to four years of minor league baseball. I don’t have a problem with his age. It’s not like he took the beating of a lineman or running back over those four years.

Overall I think Casey will be a great value pick and add some a couple more dimensions to the offense. I also expect he will contribute on special teams.

My grade on Casey: B+, great value and versatility

Anthony Hill TE North Carolina St. 4th Round
I’m not sure I really understand this pick.

Hill gets glowing praise for size, blocking ability off the snap and ability to find the open seam in zone coverage. His size makes him hard to bring down and he also boasts a great work ethic.

The big downside to Hill is his injuries. Questions about his durability abound. Also his ability to learn a pro playbook is in question.

He probably makes the team as third TE or second on passing downs. I doubt he contributes to special teams due to his injury history.

My grade for Hill: C-, where’s the back up running back?

Glover Quin FS-CB New Mexico 4th Round
Well I take back what I said earlier about not drafting a safety. Quin was listed in the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain’s draft day blog as a cornerback. He plays both positions.

After reading his scouting report, I must say this is a nice pick up. On the plus side of the ledger, he can react well to plays. He can adjust to the ball when it is thrown and he can read defenses and recognize run plays. He attacks the run well. Overall he has good instincts and is a great tackler. Supposedly he only missed five tackles last season. He’s also one tough S.O.B.

There isn’t much negative about him. There are some questions about his injuries and can he stay health if he were to play safety full time. There is also a knock on the competition he faced.

I like what Quin brings to the Texans. He’s a tough sure handed tackler who can sniff out a play. Definitely what I want in a free safety.

I can understand the worries about his injuries but I don’t see anything that can cause long term problems for the Texans. He broke his arm in JUCO in 04, played every game in 06, missed two games with groin injury in 07 and second half against BYU and he started every game in 08. He played through pain and injury. He also had off season knee surgery. I don’t think there is much to worry about though.

He might turn out to be a steal for the Texans.

My grade on Quin: A-, potential future starter

Antoine Caldwell G/C Alabama 3rd Round
I was geeked up about Caldwell when he was first selected. As I read the scouting report, my opinion dropped a spot or two about him.

The best that can be said of Caldwell is he’s instinctive; blocks well at the line and can make calls at the line. Don’t ask him to do much more.

Beyond that he’s pretty average. He’s not strong off the snap, doesn’t move side to side well, doesn’t knock defenders back and can’t move to pick up the blitz. In other words, don’t ask him to move. To quote the scouting report, “Could become a functional pivot (back up guard and center) in the pros if he is protected and not asked to pull or travel far.” Yup, Big Guy, just stand there and get in someone’s way.

My grade on Caldwell: D+, the guy just can’t move in any direction

Connor Barwin DRE-OLB-TE Cincinnati 2nd Round
I want to know who spiked the Texans punch while making this selection. Barwin has a lot of upside and potential but is quiet a reach in the 2nd round. The Texans had more pressing needs than a raw project at right end.

Barwin shot up the boards during the combine. He registered the best times in several of the drills. He is a great athlete and is quick off the ball.

The downside is his upside. He needs coaching. A lot of coaching. He has little in the way of moves, can’t shed blockers, doesn’t attack blockers well and doesn’t read or react to plays very well. He only played defense one year in college. The scouting report I have on him says he needs a few years to develop and grades him out as a mid-round talent.

I don’t have a problem with the Texans taking Barwin. I have a problem with them taking him in the 2nd round. The need at safety and back up running back were a higher priority. With the win now mentality of the Texans, they could ill afford to waste a draft pick on Barwin this high.

My grade on Barwin: C+, great prospect taken way too early.

Brian Cushing OLB USC 1st Round
The Texans were going to take either Brian Cushing or Clay Matthews with the first pick. There was a distinct possibility that they were going to trade down in the draft. Regardless, they wasted no time in taking the linebacker that was at the top of their board.

Cushing will be expected to step in right away and contribute. He may not start initially but his role will expand during the season.

The good? He’s a beast. He eats puppies and small animals for breakfast. For lunch he eats chains and craps nails. Cushing is a monster. He’s the only person known to have been called “Sir” by Chuck Norris.

On the football field, he is a menace to life. He plays hard and can shed blockers. Cushing doesn’t mind attacking the lead blocker. He has no hesitation in administering a hit and leading the point of attack.

The downside? His aggressiveness can be used against him. Misdirections can catch him flat footed. He can overrun a play and take himself out of position to make plays. He’s a little high strung too. Some think he’s too muscular and that his size hinders him sometimes. This caught me by surprise: as a pass rusher, Cushing skills are limited. He often came off the field on third downs. The injury bug is also a big concern.

My take on Cushing is that he’s a solid pick. Matthews may have been a better selection though. Matthews moves better to the ball and is a three down player. Cushing can be a three down player but it will take some work and good coaching. Other than injury concerns, his negatives appear to be correctable if he wants to learn and the coaches teach him techniques and how not to take himself out of plays. That may require him to tone down the intensity a notch or two. He does bring the nastiness of right tackle Eric Winston to the defensive side of the ball. Attitude and nastiness are definitely missing from the Texans defense.

My grade on Cushing: A-, brings attitude and hard hits to defense

Overall I have to say this is a disappointing draft for the Texans. They needed to shore up the defense and build some depth. They get the linebacker they needed in Cushing and a potential starter in Quin. Barwin may contribute but I don’t think he’s ready for the pros yet. The Texans would have been better served by selecting another defensive tackle. Despite what a friend of mine thinks, Shaun Cody isn’t the answer.

Offensively they literally dropped the ball. They picked up a slow footed lineman in the third and an oft injured TE in the fourth. Casey will be an exciting player and special teamer. They also failed to draft a capable back up for Steve Slaton.

Overall Grade on Texans Draft: C-

2009 Houston Texans Schedule – My First Quick Take

2009 Houston Texans Schedule – My First Quick Take
Some things even out. Last season I had to burn 5 vacation days to see Texans home games. This year I only have to burn 3. Not bad at all. I do shift work. Some months my work days fall on Football Sundays.

At first glance it doesn’t look like the schedule makers did the Texans any favors.

Initially it looks fine that the Texans get 3 of 4 games at home to start the season. The only road game is at divisional foe Titans. They host three winnable games against the Jets, Jaguars and Raiders.

However, that home stretch comes with a cost. The next 4 out of 5 games are played on the road. Mixing the bye week, the Texans play one home game in six weeks. Two games loom large on the road. The first road game will be against defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals and closing out the road stretch with divisional arch nemesis Indianapolis Colts. The sole home game is against the 49ers.

If the Texans can defend the home field and win 2 of 4 on the long road stretch through the first nine games, they are looking at a 6-3 record. That puts them in prime contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title.

An upset or two greatly enhances playoff chances as long as they don’t drop a game they should win. If they can stun the Titans, Cardinal or Colts on the road it puts the Texans in the thick of the divisional race. Once again that assumes a strong start to the season. Worst case scenario while staying in contention is a split in the first four games and winning 3 of the next 5. That leaves them at 5-4. Any worse and they are on the outside looking in.

After the bye week, the Texans face their three divisional enemies in consecutive weeks. They host the Titans on Monday Night Football and the Colts the next week. They close out divisional play at Jacksonville. This is the next important stretch of games of the season. Regardless of a 6-3 record or 5-4 record, 2 of 3 wins is a must. One win leaves them with a 7-5 or 6-6 record. If they enter 6-3 and win 2 of 3, they are sitting in good spot at 8-4. In two scenarios, they could end up 7-5. While not the end of the world, the competition for a playoff spot becomes fierce.

Also two wins in the three game divisional stretch helps tremendously. Last year the Texans finished 8-8 with only two divisional wins; the MNF win over the Jags and the late season street fight with the Titans. It is vital to the playoff hopes that they win more than two divisional games.

The final four games are split with two at home and two on the road. They host Seattle, go on the road against the Rams and Dolphins and then return to host the Patriots. A split, in my two scenarios, leaves them at either 10-6 or 9-7. While both are winning records, it doesn’t guarantee a playoff spot. The Patriots sat home last season with an 11-5 record.

The two keys to the season, in my way to early analysis, is to continue winning at home and improving the divisional record. Winning at home has actually been the easy part. Last season they lost two home games. Only the Ravens blew them out. They were one Sage Rosenfail turnover from going 7-1 at home. The true test of a contender is how they do on the road. For the Texans, improving the divisional record goes hand in hand with winning the road games.

Texans Times Illustrated - it's a working title for now

Texans Times Illustrated

April 2009

Inaugural Issue

What is the Texans Times Illustrated? My newsletter about my hometown NFL team – the Houston Texans.

This is my labor of love for the Texans. I’m not sure what direction it will go but I plan on doing it monthly during the off season and weekly during the season.

In this issue, I’ll take a look at the free agent moves and a draft preview.

So Long Sage Rosenfail, Hello Two Points Orlovsky

Sage Rosenfails was sent packing to the Minnesota Vikings in exchange for a 2009 fourth round draft pick. Rosenfails stepped in and went 2-3 as a starter while Matt Schaub was injured. He is probably best known for his epic meltdown against the Indianapolis Colts.



I had this weird thing about taking a picture of the scoreboard after a game last season. For some odd reason I decided to do it at the 8 minute mark of the Colts game. Right before Rosenfails epic blunders. I was to stunned to snap one after the game.

That game forever cemented my low opinion of Rosenfails. I have no idea what Rosenfails was thinking during the game. I think he started seeing his headlines and the ensuing quarterback controversy. Instead of managing the game, his head swelled. Up to the collapse, he played a perfect game. His bootlegs were a thing of beauty. The mass of players went one direction while Rosenfails went the opposite direction and would hit an open receiver downfield. The game plan was perfect. Keep the offense on the field and Payton Manning on the sidelines.

Then in a matter of minutes the whole game collapsed. Rosenfails thought he was John Elway and turned into a helicopter. That one play changed the game and gave Manning the opening he needed to pull off the victory.

Up until the Colts game, Sage Rosenfels was the most popular player on the team. Hordes of fans were calling for Schaub to be benched and Rosenfels to start.

Two things turned the fans against Rosenfails: 1. the Colts meltdown and 2. the realization that he’s not better than Schaub.

The team decided to send Rosenfails to the Vikings for a draft pick. Good luck Minnesota, he’s your problem now.

The Perfect Season
Of course, Matt Schaub’s ability to play a full season is still a big question. In two seasons as the Texans starting QB he’s missed several games. It goes to reason that the Texans must find someone capable of starting in the likely event that Schaub will miss a few games.

So to fill Rosenfails shoes, the Texans went out and signed Don Orlovsky. Orlovsky was a part time starter for those perfect Detroit Lions. Unfortunately perfection for the Lions is a low bar. 0-16 is perfect. Perfectly bad.

Orlovsky isn’t a major upgrade from Rosenfails. He is a capable starter and definitely isn’t any worse than Rosenfails. Like the man he replaces, Orlovsky is better known for his epic blunder than his success. Orlovsky evidently forgot the dimensions of the football field. He notoriously stepped out of the endzone against the Vikings for a safety. The margin of victory was two points (a 12-10 loss) and cost the Lions a chance of at least one win season.

Orlovsky now dons the steel blue and battle red of the Texans. Here’s hoping the only use the Texans have for him is mop up time in a blowout. And hopefully that blowout is in the Texans favor.

The Other Free Agents
The Texans have never been big players on the free agency scene. They probably will never chase free agents of Albert Haynesworth’s magnitude or make a trade for Julius Peppers. The current regime prefers to build through the draft and use free agents for depth. Matt Schaub is probably the biggest trade in the history of the club. Earth shattering trade it isn’t. It is by the standards of this club.

The big name free agent, again at least by the standards of this team, the Texans signed is defensive end Antonio Smith. Smith comes to the Texans from the Phoenix Cardinals. Smith will step in and start at left defensive in and sometimes move to the tackle spot on third down passing situations. The signing helps fill one obvious need on the defensive line and also allows the team to address other areas of need through the draft.

The Texans hope Smith can help alleviate some of the double teams on Mario Williams. He is Super Mario but he can’t do it all by himself. The other factor is the learning curve for a defensive end. Rookie seasons are usually a wash as they learn the game. The light didn’t go off in Williams’ head until the middle of his second season. The Texans can’t afford to wait another two seasons for a defensive lineman to learn on the job.

The other signing was defensive tackle Shaun Cody, also of the Detroit Lions. Who? That’s right. Who. The Lions had exactly one good player on defense and his name isn’t Cody. As on of the posters at InTheBullseye.com stated, “we already have a Travis Johnson.” Cody brings nothing to the table. Cody started four games last season. How bad are you when you can’t crack the starting line up on the worst team in football? The terms of his contract haven’t been released except for the dollar amount and number of years. If I had to guess, I think it’s all nonguaranteed money in the form of roster bonuses for making the team. Other than that he’s training camp fodder.

Mock Draft Overload

Mock drafts are an exercise in futility. There are numerous websites, experts, draft gurus, bloggers and columnists that put together mock drafts. They publish before free agency, post free agency, pre-combine, post combine and anytime someone breaks wind. For the most part, they don’t know what they are talking about. Talk show listeners call shows to talk about their research and ask the hosts questions regarding their mock drafts.

Yet it’s all for nothing. How many get it right? How many actually know what they are talking or writing about? Most are talking heads full of hot air. If they were actually good at what they do then they would either charge for their services or be on staff somewhere. I can understand the entertainment value of trying to construct a mock draft or two. I can’t understand a fan or journalist sitting in front of the TV and practically masturbating to the combine. It’s a total waste of time to create a mock draft before free agency, the combine and school pro days.

I prefer to read scouting reports and other reports about players but I put no value in reading mock drafts. I restrict my reading to the Houston Chronicle’s John McClain and Lance Zeirlien, Texans Chick aka Stephanie Stradley, InTheBullseye.com, DGDB&D and my Pro Football Weekly subscriptions. Also I prefer to read player rankings by position versus where they will go in the draft.

Texans Draft Preview

Another reason I don’t read mock drafts is that they are a steaming pile. The most glaring need for the Texans is on defense. Head coach Gary Kubiak has stated that the Texans want their first pick to be a starter. Other than center, they are set on the offense. Yet there are several websites that have the Texans taking offense. I’ve seen mock drafts taking Mark Sanchez, Beanie Wells, Keyshawn Moreno and Jeremy Maclin.

Defense, Defense, Defense
The obvious need for the Texans is defense. The Antonio Smith signing negates the need to draft an end. I also don’t think they take a tackle with the first pick. They are expecting Amobi Okoye to step up in his third season. They probably aren’t ready to give up on the Travis Johnson Experiment.

That leaves the linebackers and defensive backfield. DeMeco Ryans holds down the middle. Zac Diles and Xavier Adibi played on the outside. Diles played well enough until his season ending injury. Kevin Bentley took Ziles’ place and was at best adequate. Adibi may be snake bitten with the injury bug. Depth at linebacker is a concern. The starting corners and rotation is set with Jacques Reeves, Dunta Robinson, Fred Bennett and probably Antwuan Molden. At safety, they want to see what they have in Dominique Barber. Nick Ferguson re-signed with the team to return as a starter. Depth at safety is a definite need.

The defense needs a playmaker and starter to come out of this draft. Two would be great. The first position I look the Texans to take is at outside linebacker. There are several linebackers in this draft class expected to make an impact right away. Some have suggested the Texans take a middle linebacker and move DeMeco Ryans back to his college position on the outside. The Texans probably won’t do that. They hit the jackpot with Ryans in the middle. No need to move him outside when there are players available in the draft to take the outside. The lack of quality first round safeties also will push the Texans to take an outside linebacker.

It’s in the second round is where they will either look for the safety or a pass rushing end. With the plan to move Antonio Smith to tackle on some passing situations, they could possibly take an end they think can be a third down end.

Offense?
Two areas need to be addressed on offense.

The first is a second running back to spell starter Steve Slaton and pick up short yardage. Some fans have suggested a power back. With the zone block scheme the Texans use, a power back probably isn’t in the cards. A quick cutting back is what they look for.

The second area is depth on the offensive line. All five linemen started the sixteen games. According to who you believe and read, rookie Duane Brown had either a decent year or a bad year. Most believe he was a reach in the first round. Regardless he’s the starting left tackle the team has sought since its inception. Center Chris Meyer is undersized. However I don’t think they will want to mess with a starting line up that played all season together.

Despite what some alleged gurus claim, the Texans won’t take an offensive player with the first pick. Of course, never say never. There are two players that I might consider taking.

The Texans brain trust would be insane not to consider taking Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree. I have two scenarios with Crabtree. As much as I like Kevin Walters as the second wideout, Crabtree would be a major upgrade and a nightmare to cover opposite of Andre Johnson. The other scenario is making a deal with a team than needs a wide receiver and swapping 1st round picks and picking up a second or third rounder.

The other player is Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew. There were some knocks on his times at the combine. Despite that he is the only first round talent at tight end. The Texans have an excellent TE in Owen Daniels but Pettigrew has a reputation as a great blocker. He is probably not a great fit for the Texans but I’d have to consider him before I move on to the next player on my board.

Connecticut running back Donald Brown intrigues me if he were still available when the Texans select in the second round. According to the Pro Football Weekly scouting report:

…best used on counters, misdirections and in space…Could really excel in zone blocking scheme.

He is projected as a borderline first rounder.

Exciting Time for the Texans and Their Fans

Obviously it’s an exciting time for all those involved with the Texans organization as coaches, players and fans. Expectations are higher than ever before. The team is gunning for its playoff appearance. There are still some many question marks on this team though. Can the defense improve? Will Matt Schaub stay healthy and reduce the turnovers? Can the Texans extend DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels and Dunta Robinson to keep them happy? Is new defensive coordinator Frank Bush an improvement over Richard Smith? None of these question can be answered until the team lines up and starts playing the games.

That’s it for this issue. Next month I’ll obviously review the draft. Also I’ll be posting updates to this newsletter on a website or blog.